Europe Accelerates Pivot to North African Gas Amid Russian Exit Challenges
According to African Business, the European Union’s push to shift its energy dependency from Russian gas to North African suppliers is stalling due to environmental regulations, fluctuating demand, and limited investment in upstream infrastructure. The EU, which once relied on Russia for up to 45% of its imports, faces weak coordination as it seeks partners to replace Moscow’s dominance.
North Africa Emerges as Gas Hub, But Challenges Abound
Algeria has risen as a key supplier, now accounting for nearly 20% of the EU’s pipeline imports, trailing only Norway. Yet, internal demand surges in Algeria and production declines in key regions like Egypt are straining export capacity. For example, Egyptian LNG exports plummeted by 79% year-over-year during the 2023–24 winter due to domestic needs.
While the EU relies on its REPowerEU initiative to diversify energy sources, North African producers like Algeria are hesitant to commit without long-term European investment. Experts note that Algeria prioritizes its own electricity-driven industrialization needs, as its gas consumption, fueled by population growth, has risen by 70% since 2008.
Fragmented Strategy Hinders Broader Regional Potentials
European nations remain divided, pursuing short-term, bilateral agreements rather than coordinated regional planning. Diplomatic disputes, such as Algeria’s recent cut-off of gas pipelines through Morocco, have further complicated the effort. Analysts warn this fractured engagement could repeat “vulnerability lessons” from Russia-EU energy relations.
Meanwhile, regulatory obstacles like the EU’s methane-reduction targets risk alienating North African suppliers. Although the EU is introducing programs such as the €28M TaqatHy+ initiative and green financing tools, countries like Algeria argue that balance—mitigating regulations with incentives—is the missing piece of the EU’s energy policy.
Future Outlook: Cooperation or Competition?
Experts agree that North Africa represents a potential energy partnership for Europe’s long-term energy transition, particularly through renewable expansions like solar photovoltaics. However, trust and investment gaps may limit the depth of cooperation. As energy decarbonization accelerates, Europe’s unsteady reliance on North Africa must navigate conflicting priorities: short-term gas needs versus long-term climate ambitions.
Will Europe recalibrate for regional integration and investment or continue fragmented engagements? The coming months could determine whether North Africa becomes a reliable ally or a strained supplier.
